The standard N.F.L. matchup is hard to predict. In terms of probabilities for the favorite and underdog, a game is typically about a 62-38 percentage affair. When the underdog wins almost 4 out of 10 games, it can make for an exciting Sunday afternoon. But this Sunday probably won't be one of them.
With a usual weekly average split of 24 percentage points (68 minus 38), there are likely to be lots of close games that come down to the final minute and a handful of minor upsets.
But this week, the average split between favorite and underdog is 44 percentage points, nearly twice as big as usual.
We can expect a few lopsided snoozers, including Kansas City over Cleveland (a 48 percentage-point split), New Orleans over Buffalo (48 percentage-point split), Carolina over Tampa (54 percentage-point split), Green Bay over Minnesota (56 percentage-point split), Denver over Washington (70 percentage-point split), San Francisco over Jacksonville (70 percentage-point split), and Seattle over St. Louis (78 percentage-point split).
On the other hand, when there are so many mismatches, there is bound to be a big upset. Statistically, it's very unlikely that all those favorites will win. In fact, given the game probabilities this week, there is only a 21 percent chance that all of those favorites will win, and there's a complementary 79 percent chance that at least one of those underdogs will pull off an upset.
Brian Burke operates Advanced NFL Stats.
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